While we are unable to analyze sales at Aulani, Disney Vacation Club Villas to the same extent as other resorts, there is enough data to draw a few conclusions about where things stand today.
In most areas that Disney Vacation Club operates, public records sites publish enough information on the web to extract details which include the resort owned, number of points purchased, Use Year and more. This is true of resorts based in Orange and Indian River Counties in Florida and Beaufort County, South Carolina, encompassing all at Walt Disney World plus Disney's Hilton Head Island Resort and Disney's Vero Beach Resort.
Aulani, Disney Vacation Club Villas is different because the publicly available information is limited and nearly a year out of date. However, there is one key data point we can use to track progress on Disney's most remote timeshare: the annual dues statement.
Annual Dues are calculated by taking a resort's operating costs, property taxes and necessary capital reserves contributions and spreading those dollars over all points (rooms) which are part of the timeshare association. For older resorts which are "sold out", costs are spread over all rooms / points in the development. But for resorts still actively selling, the budget is based upon the number of rooms which the developer anticipates having in service in the coming year.
In the case of Aulani, here is a summary of the budgeted number of rooms over the past 8 years:
|Added from Prior Year
There's an interesting pattern with the number "19" appearing numerous times. In 2018 DVC seemingly underestimated by adding just 10 rooms to the year's budget. However they raised that figure to 28 the following year, bringing the average for 2018 / 2019 to....19 additional rooms per year.
Admittedly this is not much data from which to draw conclusions. However, let's take a stab at a few anyway:
1) By the end of 2022, Aulani wil be about 68% sold. The 2022 budget is based upon 317 vacation homes with 461 vacation homes planned for the entire development. There is some ambiguity in this number since we don't know exactly when Disney would project reaching that 317 figure in 2022. Is it a year-end number? Is it an average number, with fewer units in service at the beginning of calendar year 2022 and more than 317 toward the end of the year?
Regardless, if you want a ball park figure, Aulani's points will be about 2/3 sold eleven years after its opening in 2011.
2) Despite the attractive incentives currently offered for Aulani, DVC doesn't necessarily expect sales to rise dramatically in the coming year. Current DVC owners adding 300 or more points at Aulani can currently save a rather jaw-dropping $68 per point. One possible conclusion is that DVC plans to get more aggressive in selling those points, even if it means dramatic price reductions. However, the 2022 budget doesn't reflect such an intent. After adding just 3 rooms to the budget for 2021, the 2022 number returns to essentially average addition over 2015 - 2019.
3) At this pace, Aulani should (finally) approach sell out by the year 2029. With 134 more villas to be added at a pace of approximately 19 rooms per year, it will take 7 years for the budget to reflect the full 461 DVC timeshare rooms in Hawai'i.
That said, 7 years is a long time for disruptions in this pattern to occur. Changes in sales philosophy, management and a variety of other factors are always possible at Disney Vacation Club. Still, for more than ten years DVC has shown little urgency to sell points at the resort. Unsold DVC inventory can be rented to cash guests, generating revenue for Disney. While Aulani may never prove to be the smashing success Disney once envisioned, they seem content to take a slow and steady approach with DVC points sales, maximizing revenue for each point rather than resorting to fire sale prices.