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Thread: Guaranteed Week Sales for Copper Creek

  1. #1
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    Default Guaranteed Week Sales for Copper Creek

    Since no Guaranteed Week (GW) deeds were sold for Copper Creek in June 2018, I didn't think it was worth giving an update on the status of the GW sales in June Sales report. However, the topic of GW sales has come up on another board, so I thought readers might be interested in reading how GW sales are doing at Copper Creek.

    Through July 16, 2018, Copper Creek sold only 21 GW deeds. The breakout by accommodation type is as follows:

    Studios with Walk-In Shower: 17
    Studios with Tub Shower: 0
    One-Bedrooms: 1
    Two-Bedrooms: 2
    Grand Villas: 0
    Cabins: 1
    ======
    Total 21

    The majority of GW deeds have been sold for the last six weeks of the calendar year, which is similar to the GW sales at the Villas at Grand Floridian and the Polynesian Villas & Bungalows. Week #49 and Week #50 are the most popular weeks at Copper Creek, but each only has three deeds.

    Overall, the demand for GW deeds at Copper Creek has been very weak. The 21 GW deeds account for only 4,002 points, which is 0.28% of the total points sold for the resort. By comparison, VGF sold 275 GW deeds (3.88% of total points) and PVB has sold 98 GW deeds (0.73% of total points).

    The special RunDisney features added to some GW deeds has helped boost Copper Creek's sales a bit, accounting for 6 of the 12 GW deeds that have been sold in 2018. Nevertheless, it is unlikely GW sales will increase significantly in the future. Both VGF and PVB saw the vast majority of their GW deeds sold in the first 8 to 10 months after sales began. Copper Creek has been selling since March 2017 and is averaging just over one GW deed a month.

    On another board, someone posted that he tried to purchase a Copper Creek GW deed for Week #49 but none was available. However, if you look at what has been sold, it appears Disney should have a large number of GW deeds that it can still sell to the public. Here is part of what I posted to another board on the issue of GW deed availability at Copper Creek:

    The Copper Creek Master Declaration permits Disney to sell up to 35% of each accommodation type per week. Based on what Disney has stated will be the final breakout of accommodation types, the maximum number of Guaranteed Week deeds that can be sold for each accommodation for each week is as follows. The number in parentheses is the maximum number of each accommodation type.

    Cabins (26): 9 GW deeds
    Grand Villas (4): 1 GW deed
    Two-Bedrooms (56): 19 GW deeds
    One-Bedrooms (56): 19 GW deeds
    Studios, Walk-in Shower (41): 14 GW deeds
    Studios, Tub Shower (37): 13 GW deeds

    Once the entire resort is declared, these should be the maximum number of Guaranteed Week deeds that could be sold each of the 52 weeks in the year.

    While the resort is not fully declared, it appears that the 35% cap is applied to the number of accommodations that have been officially declared. If that is the case, then the number of Guaranteed Weeks that can be sold right now, which includes the inventory added by the fifth declaration, is as follows:

    Cabins (16): 5 GW deeds
    Grand Villas (3): 1 GW deed
    Two-Bedrooms (40): 14 GW deeds
    One-Bedrooms (42): 14 GW deeds
    Studios* (combined) (36): About 12 GW deeds

    * - I know the number of studios declared, but I don't know how many of the declared studios have walk-in showers and how many have tub showers.

    To date, the actual number of Guaranteed Week deeds sold for Copper Creek is well below these limits. Only 17 GW deeds total have been sold for Copper Creek studios spread over eight different weeks, and no week has had more than three GW deeds sold. Whether by coincidence or design, all 17 of those GW deeds are for studios with walk-in showers; there are no GW deeds for Tub Shower studios.

    Even if Disney is constrained by using the number of villas declared, it should still be able to sell many more GW deeds than it has. Granted, the DVC Guides don't seem to be overly keen on selling GW deeds, but there must be another factor coming into play that might explain Disney's reluctance to sell more GW deeds.

    My guess is that it comes down to a booking issue. If someone wants to buy a GW deed for a studio for, say, Week #49, then the buyer should be able to use that accommodation this year. However, if all seven nights comprising Week #49 are no longer available, Disney cannot fulfill its contractual obligation as specified in the GW deed. If that is the case, I suspect that Disney won't or can't sell that week to a potential GW buyer.

    Of course, if that is true then it begs the following question: "If a GW buyer stipulates they will opt out of their guaranteed rights for 2018 and won't use their GW right until 2019, will Disney sell them a GW deed?"

    Someone posted that Disney has already stated that GW buyers will need to convert their Guaranteed Week to points for the first year due to the booking issue. However, I haven't seen confirmation of this from any other source.

    I understand that a Guaranteed Week is not appealing to most people. But, given that so many DVC members seem to travel at the same time every year (especially in October through December), I'm surprised that Disney hasn't sold more GW deeds to those who travel at set times.

    In my opinion, part of the explanation for weak GW sales is the lack of advertising by DVC. Given that DVC has created the special RunDisney option for GW deeds, I have to believe that someone in DVC's upper management thinks its worth the resources to create, market, and manage this product. Yet, I'm curious if Guides even mention the GW option or the RunDisney features to prospective buyers.

    Sometimes I wonder if 'GW' doesn't stand for Guaranteed Week but actually stands for 'Guaranteed Weak.'






  2. #2
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    I suspect that since Guaranteed Week buyers have to purchase roughly 10% more points than a member would need to book that exact week makes buyers to be hesitant about purchasing GW contracts. And guides can tell if a buyer is really interested in staying the same week each year or if the buyer likes the flexibility of points.

    The crazy thing is just because you own a guaranteed (or fixed) week doesn't mean you can't opt out of the guaranteed week and use the points to book other days or even other villa types at their home resort or at the 7 month mark. So I am not sure why guides don't mention it more.
    --Denise

    Scheduled upcoming Disney trips:

    11/27-12/14/18 AKV Kidani Village
    2/19-2/22/19 - Bay Lake Tower
    3/10-3/14/19 - AKV Jambo House


  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by denlo View Post
    I suspect that since Guaranteed Week buyers have to purchase roughly 10% more points than a member would need to book that exact week makes buyers to be hesitant about purchasing GW contracts. And guides can tell if a buyer is really interested in staying the same week each year or if the buyer likes the flexibility of points.

    The crazy thing is just because you own a guaranteed (or fixed) week doesn't mean you can't opt out of the guaranteed week and use the points to book other days or even other villa types at their home resort or at the 7 month mark. So I am not sure why guides don't mention it more.
    And given the flexibility of the runDisney Guaranteed Event Weeks there wouldn't be more interest. I think the Wine & Dine weekend would have benefit for non-runners in addition to runners.

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