April 2011 DVC sales analysis

[Wil Lovato]

After having a very good sales month in March, it is not surprising that direct sales of Disney Vacation Club points slipped in April 2011. A total of 238,268 points were sold directly by Disney Vacation Development (DVD), a drop of about 9.3% compared to the previous month. Despite the slight drop sales, April 2011 was the second best month for sales since at least July 2010.

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[imdizfan]

Thank you for the analysis. I really look forward to reading these each month.

[wdrl]

I'm curious whether DVD will change its marketing strategy for AKV once BLT reaches its "sold out" phase later this year. I wonder whether DVD thinks that new buyers will automatically shift their money from BLT to AKV once BLT points become scarce, or if it will be content to have new buyers bypass AKV in favor of SSR -- assuming that SSR's base price remains at $99 a point.

[denlo]

I think that will be interesting to see which DVC resort the guides push after BLT sells out. Would Aulani be a factor? For awhile they were pushing VCG pretty much over everything. I don't really understand why they don't push AKV.

I just heard a podcast that gave the results of satisfaction surveys taken in the past year by Touring Plans.com and Kidani ranked No. 1 for all Disney resorts (DVC and cash). The top four were Kidani, GF, WL and Jambo House.

For DVC resorts, it's was Kidani, BLT and then OKW. They said that Kidani was the only Disney resort that just missed out on having had a A+ rating it was because it lacked a food court or quick service restaurant.

[worldfanatic]

I just heard a podcast that gave the results of satisfaction surveys taken in the past year by Touring Plans.com and Kidani ranked No. 1 for all Disney resorts (DVC and cash). The top four were Kidani, GF, WL and Jambo House.

Interesting that both AKL properties were in the top 4.
Despite a location that many like to complain about (not me), it truly is a PHENOMENAL Resort!!!

[awilliams4]

I love the monthly analysis. It gives you a very good feel for the ongoing business health for DVD which does translate to the overall health of DVC.

[TimK]

I think that will be interesting to see which DVC resort the guides push after BLT sells out. Would Aulani be a factor? For awhile they were pushing VCG pretty much over everything. I don't really understand why they don't push AKV.

From January 2007 through approx September 2008 (20 months?) DVC pushed AKV almost exclusively. SSR was still available but all of their efforts were behind AKV.

Then even after Bay Lake Tower was announced in Sept '08, they still kept AKV in the spotlight for a while. My assumption has always been that over those first few months of selling the two side-by-side, BLT sales eclipsed AKV to the degree that it justified letting AKV fade into the background. If nothing else, BLT is much more visible and it gave DVC the monorail resort many had been waiting 18 years to arrive.

After BLT is sold out, AKV & SSR may be the only on-site options left so they would have to start pushing those two to some degree. That is, unless they immediately begin work on Grand Floridian converted rooms or some other project which could be completed in short order. Even though the money has already been invested in Kidani, DVC isn't going to get $140 per point as they are for BLT and could for Grand Floridian.

AKV has been selling for 4 1/2 years now and DVC Guides will undoubtedly bring it up if they buyer wishes to go that direction. But despite the good reviews and obvious affection from many owners, I'm not sure that it's a location which speaks to many buyers. As someone who has stayed there a few times, I appreciate the quality of the resort...but it's not my first choice of destinations for a Florida vacation getaway.

[wdrl]

After BLT is sold out, AKV & SSR may be the only on-site options left so they would have to start pushing those two to some degree. That is, unless they immediately begin work on Grand Floridian converted rooms or some other project which could be completed in short order.

If DVD decides to convert some of the Grand Floridian rooms to DVC villas, how much time do you think it would take before the villas would be ready for occupancy? Do you think it would be similar to the timeframe on the conversion of the Animal Kingdom Lodge rooms to DVC villas?

Perhaps others could fill in the dates that I am missing regarding AKV's conversion and construction:

• Animal Kingdom Villas is announced -- ??/??/????
• AKL conversion to DVC Villas is begun -- ??/??/????
• Notice of Commencement filed to build AKV models on 5th Floor of AKL -- 07/19/2006
• First AKV Deed is Recorded with OCC -- 03/09/2007
• AKV Jambo House Villas Open -- 07/02/2007
• First AKV-Kidani Village Deed is Recorded with OCC -- 03/26/2008
• AKV Kidani Village Villa Open -- 05/??/2009

[TimK]

DVC announced AKV in August 2006...about about 5 months before they began selling and 10.5 months before the first rooms opened to members. Have no idea when the work actually began. Nobody was monitoring public records websites back then so it's my recollection that the announcement took everyone by surprise. For that reason, I don't think work began until sometime after Aug '06. October sticks in my head for some reason.

I could easily see a similar scenario playing out for GF if there are going to be converted rooms. They could announce in fall '11, begin selling winter '11 (shortly after BLT sells-out) and open summer '12.

[wdrl]

With denlo's help, we have filled in some more dates about the conversion of AKL rooms to DVC villas at AKV:

• Notice of Commencement filed to build AKV models on 5th Floor of AKL -- 07/19/2006
• Animal Kingdom Villas is officially announced by Disney -- 10/11/2006
• AKV Master Declaration Recorded with OCC -- 01/23/2007
• Disney announces conversion of hotel rooms to villas is completed -- 02/18/2007
• First AKV Deed is Recorded with OCC -- 03/09/2007
• AKV Jambo House Villas Open -- 07/02/2007
• First AKV-Kidani Village Deed is Recorded with OCC -- 03/26/2008
• AKV Kidani Village Villa Open -- 05/??/2009

I agree with TimK that if DVD converts some Grand Floridian rooms to DVC Villas, its possible we could see the villas opening by Summer 2012. Of course, that's a big "IF."