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Thread: DVCNews Debates: Resale Price Decline

  1. #1
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    Default DVCNews Debates: Resale Price Decline



    All Disney Vacation Club contracts have fixed ending dates. Some popular resorts like Disney's Beach Club Villas and Disney's BoardWalk Villas have end dates less than 25 years away in January 2042. All of the new resorts Disney continues to build feature contracts that are valid for a full 50 years. Nevertheless, the popularity of select older locations has lead to resale prices which continue to climb--some now going for 50-75% more than their initial selling price.



    Topic: When do you think resale prices will begin to fall for resorts with the 2042 ending date?

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  2. #2
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    Thumbs up Great question!

    I believe it goes back to the old adage within real estate, "Location, location, location!" Members seem to be willing to pay the necessary market value in order to have first opportunity to stay at their favorite resort. At some point we should expect them to plateau but it's a crystal ball answer for now. Interested to hear what others think as well. ~ Shontell Crawford

  3. #3
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    Really hard to say the way they keep jacking up both the cost per point and the number of points required for the new resorts.

    That said, I think once the resorts hit the 25 yrs mark, the prices will stabilize and then start to go down as each remaining year ticks off. Of course, the other side of that coin is that people my age, starting into retirement, might want to pick up additional resale points knowing I'll most likely die before they expire but I want to spend as much time as possible in WDW with the time I have left. Not sure there will be enough demand to keep the price going up, but I think it will greatly slow the decline.

  4. #4
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    I was talking to a resale agent a while back and asked him the very same question. His response, and he already had me on a sale so it wasn't for me to buy etc., was that he saw them never going down bc even in the end, someone could buy into one and still save the money for the remaining years versus the cash price for the same accommodations. True? I don't know...

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Highpoint7 View Post
    I was talking to a resale agent a while back and asked him the very same question. His response, and he already had me on a sale so it wasn't for me to buy etc., was that he saw them never going down bc even in the end, someone could buy into one and still save the money for the remaining years versus the cash price for the same accommodations. True? I don't know...
    I highly doubt that it'll stay high all the way to the end. To take it to the irrational extreme, buying 200 points of Beach Club Villas at current prices (let's say $125/point) is $25,000 dollars - even paying full rack rate for the most expensive nights, you could get almost 15 nights in a 2br for that much money. So that price would be silly for the last couple years.

    Personal guess, once it's under 10 years to go, the price will run at about the amount the owner could get by renting the points for all remaining years, minus dues. So, at current prices of $13-14/point and dues of about $6-7/point, price would be around $7/point/year remaining on the contract - $70/point for a contract with 10 years left. (Obviously, both rental prices and dues will probably by higher by the 2030s, so the numbers would adjust.) I'd expect to start seeing declines in Beach Club Villas (the highest resale of the 2042 expirations) by 2025 or so.

    But, just a guess, really. I'm still kind of amazed that my DVC ownership is worth 25% more than what I paid 4 years ago. I didn't buy it as an investment to resell, I bought it to use.
    [WDW visits: DxL 1/98, VWL 1/03, WL 6/03, VWL 1/08, BWV 1/13, BCV 1/16, POFQ 4/17]
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  6. #6
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    Well before then, I will have gotten my moneyís worth out of my contracts, so should I chose to sell any or all of them, regardless of the value at that time I will have come out ahead.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  7. #7
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    The price per available point will never decrease and will only continue to increase as all other resorts continue to increase.
    It appears that too often people donít understand they are buying a quantity of a commodity. If we are talking about buying ice cream and say originally it was only available for $3/gal. and today it is only available as $2/half gal. Sometimes it appears that people are saying the price of ice cream went down (i.e. from $3 to $2,) not accounting for getting less ice cream, when in actuality it went up 33%. Even when there is only 1 year left, the price per available points will not be less, because those points are still just as valuable as they are today. So when my supermarket started selling ice cream in 1.75 qts containers for a few cents less than when they were selling half gal cartons, I realize that my price didnít go down but up.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by disBOBney View Post
    The price per available point will never decrease and will only continue to increase as all other resorts continue to increase.
    It appears that too often people donít understand they are buying a quantity of a commodity. If we are talking about buying ice cream and say originally it was only available for $3/gal. and today it is only available as $2/half gal. Sometimes it appears that people are saying the price of ice cream went down (i.e. from $3 to $2,) not accounting for getting less ice cream, when in actuality it went up 33%. Even when there is only 1 year left, the price per available points will not be less, because those points are still just as valuable as they are today. So when my supermarket started selling ice cream in 1.75 qts containers for a few cents less than when they were selling half gal cartons, I realize that my price didnít go down but up.
    So you are saying that BWV, selling to day at X dollars with 25 years to go will be selling for X+ five yrs from now and X++ in 10 yrs and X+++ in 15 and X++++ in 20 and X+++++ with one or two yrs left in the contract?

    Please call me in 2040, I'll have some points I want to sell you.

  9. #9
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    My guess is that we're getting close to it. Right now we're hitting the point where the early resorts have half the remaining lifetime of new resorts (Poly, CCV). The points for those resorts on resale market are more than half the cost of new points direct.

    If you're a new buyer it doesn't make much sense to buy those limited points.

    If you already own at those resorts it might make sense, especially if you figure you won't be living out the contract yourself. I am young enough that I will outlast (well, statistically) the early resorts. I probably won't outlive Polynesian or Copper Creek. Older buyers may not worry about the resort still being going in 2065 or later... if they're facing retirement now (as my parents are), they probably don't really care about years they won't likely ever see. But then, if they are thinking about handing down the contract to kids or grandkids, longevity of the contract may mean more to them.

  10. #10
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    I think it will start decreasing at the 20 year mark. And it slowly decrease until the 10 year mark when there will fire sales for long time owners that want their money back. Keep in. Ind many of those owners bought the points for under $65 per point. By the 5 year mark it will be hard to sell.
    --Denise

    Scheduled upcoming Disney trips:


    11/30/17 - 12/14/17 - Bay Lake Tower at the Contemporary Resort
    03/01/18 - 03/08/18 - Copper Creek at the Wilderness Lodge

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